June 2019
Preface
There has been no doubt that the ties between Israel and the
United States is now extraordinary tight since Trump was inaugurated to the
President of the United States. And the Palestinian issue was stimulated since
then. It is not sure that whether the permanent peace in the Middle East can be
achieved or not. But it can say that the power balance in the Middle East has completely
changed and the Palestinian conflict is not hot issue now.
Tail
wind for PM Netanyahu
President Trump has launched pro-Israeli policies one after
another. They were the relocation of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem
and the recognition of the Golan Heights as Israeli sovereignty. The purpose of
pro-Israeli policies is said to gain support for Christian Evangelicals, who
are Trump’s main supporters for the coming Presidential re-election campaign. In
Israel Likud party headed by Netanyahu won the general election in April 2019
with a narrow margin. Netanyahu could not form new government, and the
re-election will be held. There will be a high possibility that the fifth
Netanyahu government be formed. Then Netanyahu will expand the settlements of
the West Bank and build a strong military base on the Golan Heights. This means
to deny the two-state co-existence resolutions authorized by the United
Nations.
On the other hand, Trump administration has withdrawn from the
nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and banned the import of Iranian oil to all of the
countries in the world including Japan and China. US also designated Iran's Revolutionary
Guards as a terrorist organization. Hard-liners inside the administration have
even proclaimed the overthrow of Iran's regime. Iran took the countermeasure
against US actions. Saudi Arabia frightened by the threat of Iran became more
reliant on the United States, and has even intended to cooperate with Israel.
Egypt and Turkey, the region's major powers along with Iran and Saudi
Arabia, are also fading out from Palestinian issue. In Egypt, President El Sisi
is working diligently about strengthening the dictatorship by constitutional
referendum. Turkish President Erdogan also focuses to strengthen the political
power. Two presidents need US economic and military assistance. They are trying
to make a "deal" with US President Trump. Now President Trump is fighting
a fierce battle of deal with four big powers in the Middle East; Iran, Turkey,
Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The Middle East is now in the era of “New Deal”.
Trump's New Deal diplomacy
New Deal means that the parents redistribute the cards in the card
game. The US New Deal during the 1930s was a domestic policy for easing money supply
and stimulating investments. It was implemented by President Franklin Roosevelt
to overcome the economic crisis. On the other hand, President Trump's New Deal
is not domestic policy but foreign diplomacy. It is supremacy diplomacy by US
in a global scale in the Middle East, China, EU and every corners in the world.
Jared Kushner’s Middle East peace plan is the core of deal
diplomacy of Israeli-Palestinian issue. Jared Kushner is White House senior
adviser and Jewish son-in-law of President Donald Trump. He is ordered by the
President to arrange peace work. It is reported that his plan will void the two
states coexistence policies and Palestine will be incorporated into the "Greater
Israel". It aims to improve Palestinian status through not political
mediation but economic assistance. For this purpose, Kushner proposed the international
conference so-called “Peace for Prosperity” in Bahrain in late June.
Kushner's peace plan is too much pro-Israel. The Palestinian
Authority definitely refused the plan. Nevertheless the international community
is chilly to Palestine. Palestine is isolated and is to be enslaved as a
second-class citizen within the territory of Israel.
Today’s Nobel Peace Prize in Middle East
Ironically, such situation is about to bring peace to the Middle
East. If the word "peace" sounds disgust, it may be better to define "a
political and social stability without hot war." Politicians who bring such
stability are eligible for the Nobel Peace Prize.
The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in the Middle East has been
chosen in the sense of the expectation that peace would be realized. The
criteria for awarding the prize does not depend on the fact that the peace has
been achieved. Peace in the Middle East has the different character from the
past one. In the past the peace was a fruit of the compromise between the
conflicting parties. But nowadays the peace in the Middle East is realized
through a unilateral and intimidating non-combat situation by strong politicians.
Regarding to the Nobel Peace Prize for the Israeli Prime Ministers
in the past, the first co-winner of Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian
President Anwar Sadat in 1978 were mediated by the US President Bill Clinton
after Yom Kippur War (or Ramadan War) in 1973. Begin and Sadat compromised each
other despite the criticism of neighboring countries. In the second case of the
1994 peace prize, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (jointly won with Foreign
Minister Shimon Peres and Chairman of PLO Yasser Arafat) has achieved the peace
by Oslo Accord mediated by Norwegian government. Both Nobel Peace Prizes are
the result of a compromise between conflicting parties.
However, peace to be created between Israel and Palestine will be different
from the old one. Contemporary peace is the force-oriented one by Israel with
strong back-up of the United States. It is the problem that whether this is the
real peace or not. But there is a kind of peace without hot war. In that sense,
if Netanyahu can calm down the conflict with Palestine by force in line with
Kushner's peace plan, he will be eligible for the Nobel Peace Prize.
At that time, President Trump must surely tweet as follows.
"Congratulations! Netanyahu. Don't forget that your Peace Prize is owe to me
and my son-in-law!"
Lastly there is one important fact to be pointed out. President
Sadat has been assassinated three years later after receiving peace prize in
1978. And the 1994 winner PM Lavin has been also assassinated two years later.
It should bear in mind that the Nobel Peace Prize for the Middle East brings not
only honor to him but also a risk to his life.
Your comment on this matter would
be highly appreciated.
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com
Also please check the following
URL.
Commentary and review on the
Middle East matters:
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