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(Arabic Version)
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January 2020
There is a conflict between Turkey, Cyprus and Greece over natural gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore, Israel which has the region's largest gas field and Russia which is the world's largest natural gas exporter are competing to export natural gas to Western Europe. As the transit point of natural gas from Russia to Europe, Turkey concluded an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) treaty with Libya in North Africa to suppress its long-time nemesis Cyprus[1].
The conflict also involves which country takes the initiative, Russia or U.S. over exporting natural gas to Europe. The United States, which dislikes Russia to seize Western Europe energy market, is claiming the pipeline construction by Russia. There is another conflict that which country gets leadership of the Middle East and North Africa, Turkey or Saudi Arabia. Regarding Libya, natural resource giant in Africa, Turkey and Qatar support orthodox governments based in western Tripoli, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE support eastern rebels Haftar warlords. The fundamental antipathy of Saudi Arabia and UAE underlies that Tripoli government has sympathy to the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2017, Saudi Arabia and UAE had broken their diplomatic ties with Qatar over the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatar asked Turkey for help. That scene is directly reflected on the Libyan issue.
Problem is more complicated. Libya is Russia's important arms market. The Russian war contractor Wagner group supporting Haftar warlords. The interests of Turkey and Russia are in conflict[2]. For European countries, they import natural gas from Libya, but at the same time they have the trouble with the influx of refugees from the Mediterranean coast of Libya. Europe welcomes natural gas, but does not welcome refugees. "Natural resource" is OK, but "Human resource" is not-OK for Europe. They want to maintain good relations with Tripoli orthodox government for the stability of Libya.
Egypt, which is Libya's neighboring country and expels Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist group, has severed the diplomatic tie with Qatar. Egypt supports the Haftar warlords in tandem with Saudi Arabia and UAE. However, Egypt began to import natural gas from Israel[3], because the country's top priority is economic reconstruction. If they fail to rebuild the economy, Egypt will bring back the nightmare of the Arab Spring in 2011. The Sisi military regime has to be careful not to stimulate domestic or overseas powers for the time being.
The East Mediterranean is stormy. This report would focus on the problem of gas exploration and pipelines in the East Mediterranean.
Discovery of huge gas fields in Israel
The root of the problem was the discovery of large gas fields in territorial water of Israel. Tamar and Leviathan gas fields were discovered in 2010 and 2013 respectively. The Tamar gas field started production in 2013 and the Leviathan gas field last December. Reserves of Leviathan field is 400 billion cubic meters (2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent)[4]. It is equivalent to 40 years of domestic consumption. Israel is now regional energy giant. Country has already begun export natural gas to Egypt[5], and plans export to Jordan soon[6]. Furthermore, Israel made an agreement with Greece and Cyprus laying the East Med Pipeline with the prospect of exporting gas to West Europe[7].
(To be Continued----)
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com
[1] Turkey-Libya maritime deal rattles East Mediterranean
2019/12/25 Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-libya-eastmed-tensions-explain/turkey-libya-maritime-deal-rattles-east-mediterranean-idUSKBN1YT0JK
[3] Israel to
start exporting natural gas to Egypt in November — minister
2019/7/25 Arab News
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1530831/business-economy
[4] From BP Statistical Report of World Energy 2019
[6] Jordan
starts getting gas from Israel despite heated opposition
20201/3 Arab News
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1607661/middle-east
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