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( English Version)
(Japanese Version)
(Arabic Version)
Feb, 2021
Traditionally Saudi Arabia has been praised as
the leader of Islam and has gained the support of Islamic countries by
consistently confronting Israel on the issue of peace process between Israel
and Palestine. In addition, it has contributed to the stability of the world's
energy supply as the world's largest oil-producing country. Saudi Arabia has
supported the prosperity of Wall Street and the military industry in the United
States with abundant oil wealth. Saudi Arabia with big economic power also gained
international fame as the only one G20 members in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia
is the most reliable ally of the US in the Middle East. It echoed to the US
sanctions on Iran. It has been suppressing the neighboring countries from the
center of the Arabian Peninsula.
However, Israel and the UAE signed a peace
agreement, followed by Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. The pride of Saudi Arabia as
a political leader in the Arab nations was falling down. And in the field of
energy politics, the United States has established self-sufficiency system by
the development of shale oil and gas. Thus, Saudi Arabia is becoming less
important. The OPEC+ (plus) system, which aimed to revive the myth of the OPEC
oil cartel, has been scratched by Russia. And in the Yemeni civil war, the disunion
within the Yemen government upset mediatory efforts of Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Saudi
Arabia itself was exposed to the of drone attacks by the Houthi faction in
Yemen.
1. Overtaken by the UAE and neglected by Bahrain.
It was taboo for Arab countries to
conclude peace treaty with Israel. Only Egypt and Jordan were the exception
because they lost Middle East Wars and compelled to agree peace agreement with
Israel in 1979 and 1994 respectively. In practice, it was obvious that even if
Arabs united together, they could not compete with Israel. Only young princes
of the second or third generation like two Crown Princes of Saudi Arabia and
Abu Dhabi in the Gulf countries understood the power game in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin
Salman (commonly known as MbS) had no experience about the Middle East Wars
because he was born in 1985. He has little interest in the Palestinian issue.
He is keen to enforce the relationship with the United States. The US Trump
administration has implemented extra Israeli-oriented policies to relocate the US
embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and accept the annexation of the Golan
Heights. Meanwhile Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and applied
tougher economic sanctions against Iran. This Trump administration's policy has
ignited MbS's ambition to monopolize the diplomatic leadership in the Arab
world.
Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, became the mediator
between US President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel, and MbS.
President and Kushner sought to achieve peace between Israel and the Arabs in
order to enhance their legacy. MbS thought that the Kingdom could become the
head runner. However, his conservative father, King Salman, persisted Two-State
Solution Saudi Peace Initiative which was advocated by ex-King Abdullah. He did
not accept bilateral peace treaty. King Salman usually makes MbS have his own
way for most of government policies. But the king does not stubbornly give up
on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Big discrepancy took place between father and
son.
President Trump desired to be re-elected. Domestically
he had several problems including corona virus pandemic. Then he looked for
diplomatic fruit to cover the disadvantage. That was the reason why he tried to
achieve peace between Israel and the Arab countries. He hoped to get solid
support of the Christian evangelicals who enthusiastically backed Israel. Trump
could not expect the quick response by Saudi Arabia due to the wide difference
of the opinions between the king and the crown prince. President changed the
partner to the UAE. He proposed the UAE to sell the F-35 stealth fighter which
the UAE is eager to get.
Bahrain had another story. In Bahrain, the
Iranian Shiites are majority, and ruled by Khalifa royal family of Sunni
minority. The society is not always stable. The US 5th Fleet is stationed in
Bahrain with nearly 10,000 soldiers in such circumstance. The Khalifa ruling
family used to be obedient to Saudi Arabia. But now Bahrain chose the United
States as the guardian. Bahrain neglected Saudi Arabia which has been a
political and economic patron.
MbS had too much confidence in himself as a go-between
in the Middle East. He also tried to develop aggressive political and energy policy
using the hotline with US President Donald Trump (then) and Russian President
Vladimir Putin. But he was now reminded that he was a naked king.
(Cont’d)
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com