Falling Saudi Arabian Diplomacy Part3: Saudi Arabia left behind(1)

* Full text can be read as follows

( English Version)

(Japanese Version)

(Arabic Version)

 Feb, 2021

Traditionally Saudi Arabia has been praised as the leader of Islam and has gained the support of Islamic countries by consistently confronting Israel on the issue of peace process between Israel and Palestine. In addition, it has contributed to the stability of the world's energy supply as the world's largest oil-producing country. Saudi Arabia has supported the prosperity of Wall Street and the military industry in the United States with abundant oil wealth. Saudi Arabia with big economic power also gained international fame as the only one G20 members in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia is the most reliable ally of the US in the Middle East. It echoed to the US sanctions on Iran. It has been suppressing the neighboring countries from the center of the Arabian Peninsula.

 

However, Israel and the UAE signed a peace agreement, followed by Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. The pride of Saudi Arabia as a political leader in the Arab nations was falling down. And in the field of energy politics, the United States has established self-sufficiency system by the development of shale oil and gas. Thus, Saudi Arabia is becoming less important. The OPEC+ (plus) system, which aimed to revive the myth of the OPEC oil cartel, has been scratched by Russia. And in the Yemeni civil war, the disunion within the Yemen government upset mediatory efforts of Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Saudi Arabia itself was exposed to the of drone attacks by the Houthi faction in Yemen.

 

1. Overtaken by the UAE and neglected by Bahrain.

It was taboo for Arab countries to conclude peace treaty with Israel. Only Egypt and Jordan were the exception because they lost Middle East Wars and compelled to agree peace agreement with Israel in 1979 and 1994 respectively. In practice, it was obvious that even if Arabs united together, they could not compete with Israel. Only young princes of the second or third generation like two Crown Princes of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi in the Gulf countries understood the power game in the Middle East.

 

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (commonly known as MbS) had no experience about the Middle East Wars because he was born in 1985. He has little interest in the Palestinian issue. He is keen to enforce the relationship with the United States. The US Trump administration has implemented extra Israeli-oriented policies to relocate the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and accept the annexation of the Golan Heights. Meanwhile Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and applied tougher economic sanctions against Iran. This Trump administration's policy has ignited MbS's ambition to monopolize the diplomatic leadership in the Arab world.

 

Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, became the mediator between US President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel, and MbS. President and Kushner sought to achieve peace between Israel and the Arabs in order to enhance their legacy. MbS thought that the Kingdom could become the head runner. However, his conservative father, King Salman, persisted Two-State Solution Saudi Peace Initiative which was advocated by ex-King Abdullah. He did not accept bilateral peace treaty. King Salman usually makes MbS have his own way for most of government policies. But the king does not stubbornly give up on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Big discrepancy took place between father and son.

 

President Trump desired to be re-elected. Domestically he had several problems including corona virus pandemic. Then he looked for diplomatic fruit to cover the disadvantage. That was the reason why he tried to achieve peace between Israel and the Arab countries. He hoped to get solid support of the Christian evangelicals who enthusiastically backed Israel. Trump could not expect the quick response by Saudi Arabia due to the wide difference of the opinions between the king and the crown prince. President changed the partner to the UAE. He proposed the UAE to sell the F-35 stealth fighter which the UAE is eager to get.

 

Bahrain had another story. In Bahrain, the Iranian Shiites are majority, and ruled by Khalifa royal family of Sunni minority. The society is not always stable. The US 5th Fleet is stationed in Bahrain with nearly 10,000 soldiers in such circumstance. The Khalifa ruling family used to be obedient to Saudi Arabia. But now Bahrain chose the United States as the guardian. Bahrain neglected Saudi Arabia which has been a political and economic patron.

 

MbS had too much confidence in himself as a go-between in the Middle East. He also tried to develop aggressive political and energy policy using the hotline with US President Donald Trump (then) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. But he was now reminded that he was a naked king.

 

(Cont’d)

 

 

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com