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Wednesday, April 24, 2019

How Saudi Arabia can manage the murder case of Jamal Khashoggi? (4)


(You can read full text in Home Page: OCIN Initiative trilingually(English/Arabic/Japanese). Let's try the following URL.)
http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/0464KhashoggiCaseApr2019English.pdf



5.Qatar counterattacks Saudi Arabia



Qatar has been under diplomatic severance and economic sanctions from Saudi Arabia and other three Arab countries since 2017 because of its support for the Muslim Brotherhood[1]. The impact on Qatar was by no means small. Without natural gas, Qatar would have fallen on Saudi Arabia’s knees sooner or later. Isolated from the GCC union, Qatar changed the way of its existance to cooperate with Turkey and Iran. This would have been a miscalculation for Saudi Arabia which was in conflict with two countries.



For Qatar, which faced difficulty in diplomacy, the Khashoggi case was a one chance in a million. Qatar has uncovered the truth of the case one after another through Al Jazeera TV and other government controlled media. One of the reports, as mentioned above, was on the incineration of dead body of Mr. Khashoggi. Qatar condemned Saudi Arabia referring to the news on its own coverage or leaked news from the Turkish authorities and Western media like the US Washington Post. Naturally, the Saudi media does not cover such foreign news, nor officially publish the report related to the trial. The information by Qatar is the best choice to follow Khashoggi case.



It could not be denied that some of the news by Qatari media might be fake ones and some of them have malicious intention against Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, it is no doubt that Qatar has satisfied in a series of revelations to counterattack Saudi Arabia and to appeal in international society. The country is also accelerating its departure from Saudi Arabia in other fields by leaving OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) dominated by Saudi Arabia[2]. From now on Qatar may annoy by bringing over Oman and Kuwait which do not necessarily keep pace with Saudi Arabia.



As same as Turkey, Qatar is enough to look at drowning Saudi Arabia “as time goes by”.



6. What will happens in the future?



Khashoggi case would fade out day by day because politics and diplomacy are turbulent in the Middle East. That is just as MbS wants. The Saudi government itself is trying to make the case to be the game-over. Even the United States, Turkey and Qatar, there will be little advantage even if the truth is revealed. After that, each country trade the case in favor of its own country by rattling its saber in front of Saudi government (and MbS). It would be possible for the media or an international human rights organization to blame the Saudi government or MbS without showing clear evidence. But such means could not last in the political scene. The principal of justice based on freedom, equality and human rights is not applicable for international politics and diplomacy.



To recover the lost credit, on the other hand, MbS will make efforts to show up his presence at international conference or develop bilateral diplomacy with oil-poor countries. One of the bilateral diplomacy was his recent official visits to Pakistan, India and China[3]. Regarding the international conference the G20 Summit, of which Saudi Arabia is a member, considered to be a place of appeal for MbS. This year's G20 Summit will be held in Osaka, Japan and next summit will be held in Riyadh on November 21-22, 2020[4]. Saudi Arabia is the host country of Riyadh Summit. It seems that MbS is aiming for a complete comeback to the international arena at the Osaka Summit in June 2019. Therefore, MbS must think that he should be introduced to the leaders of each countries by Japanese Prime Minister Mr. Abe in the coming G20 as the next host country. However, among G20 leaders, MbS's ally is only US President Trump. Many other leaders are suspicious of MbS. They, therefore, might be reluctant for bilateral talks with him. MbS seems to be a troublemaker of PM Abe[5].



More serious problem is the development of domestic economy in Saudi Arabia. MbS launched Vision 2030 and its related mega projects. The import of technology and capital from foreign private enterprises and participation of domestic private entities are indispensable for realization of mega projects. However, concerning the relationship with the private sector, corruption exposure case in 2017 and the Khashoggi case in 2018 became the obstacle to cooperate with them. Private business owners in Saudi Arabia distrust with MbS due to the corruption case and incline to be cooperative. Foreign private business owners dislike the dirty image of MbS and hesitate to invest and transfer technology to Saudi Arabia[6].



It is reported that foreign financial institutions rushed to the issuance of bond by Saudi Aramco. Someone says that Western companies are coming back to normal as before. This is merely the attitude of the financial sector, which obey the nature of money only. They are almost irrelevant to the justice and ethics. But it is quite different in other business sectors like manufacturing. They have to be royal to the public opinion or consumers.







Please tell us your comments and opinions on this matter.



By Areha Kazuya







[1]Saudi Crown Prince starts Asia trip pledging $20b for Pakistan’, 2019/2/18, Gulf News
[2]  Qatar gives notice of its withdrawal from OPEC’, 2018/12/3, OPEC Press Release
[3]Saudi Crown Prince starts Asia trip pledging $20b for Pakistan’, 2019/2/18, Gulf News
[4]Dates set for G20 Leaders’ Summit in Saudi Arabia’, 2018/4/17, Arab News
[5] ‘Telephone call between Saudi Crown Prince and Japanese PM Abe confirms impatience of Muhammad’
[6] レポート「サウジ・ビジョン 2030 に赤信号:皇太子を警戒する内外の民間経営者たち」参照。


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