http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/Dec2019GccSummitEnglish.pdf
(ArabicVersion)
(Japanese Version)
December 2019
Saudi Arabia has no afford now
It was worthy to mention that when Gulf Cup of soccer match game was held in Qatar this fall, Saudi Arabia sent its team without boycotting the game. Saudi Arabia, who has been the dominant force of GCC so far, was always arrogant in the past. But the image of Saudi Arabia has been severely damaged not only by the Khashoggi’s murder case but also the turmoil of corruption detection for political opponents. Saudi Arabia lost the trust internationally and domestically at once. And the OPEC strategy utilizing oil as weapons is ineffective as once used to. The magnetic field between Saudi and Qatar is changing from repelling to attracting.
Blowing draft between Saudi Arabia and UAE
As a result, drafts began to blow between Saudi Arabia and UAE. UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Gargash tweeted that the Qatar issue had not been scrapped since the summit. He expressed discomfort with the signs of a Saudi-Qatar reconciliation[3]. UAE took also different policy from Saudi Arabia about Yemen. During the Yemen civil war, Saudi Arabia and the UAE formed the Arab coalition with the endorsement of the United Nations. They supported the UN-authorized government and bombed Iran-backed Houthi rebels. However, UAE departed from Saudi Arabia gradually during the battle with the Houthi rebels. UAE backed Southern Transitional Council which was the separatist in southern Yemen and more powerful than the Saudi-backed exile government in Riyadh.
Inner struggle took place in the Yemeni government. It was far from the elimination of the Houthi rebels. UAE was disgusted and decided to withdraw from Yemen, leaving it to Saudi Arabia. Draft blew out between Saudi Arabia and UAE, too. The magnetic field between two countries is changing from attracting to repelling.
Qatar remains calm
At the initial stage of Qatar boycott, Saudi Arabia believed its overwhelming power and expected Qatar to surrender. Power balance, however, has been changed completely. Saudi Arabia is now in a hurry to settle down, whereas Qatar remains calm. Qatar has minimized the influence of boycotts by importing food from Turkey and asking Turkey to station its troops in Qatar. In addition, Qatar has withdrawn from OPEC and is focusing on increasing production of natural gas and export of LNG. Furthermore, Qatar attended the Islamic International Conference held by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad along with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Saudi Arabia and its breathtaking OIC (Organization of the Islamic Conference) strongly opposed the meeting, saying it was a sectarian activity. But Qatar remains calm[4].
The magnetic field inside the GCC is changing slightly. For the time being, it is necessary to keep an eye on what will happen to the unity of the GCC, or whether the GCC itself will melt down.
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com
[1] GCC
summit calls for greater economic and defense unity among Gulf countries
2019.12.10 Arab News
[2] King
Salman leads Saudi official condemnations of Florida attack
2019/12/7 Arab News
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1595296/saudi-arabia
[3] Qatar
should address issues raised by four states, says Gargash
2019/12/12 Khaleej Times
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/region/qatar-crisis/uae-minister-issues-statement-on-solution-to-qatar-crisis-
[4]Organization of Islamic Cooperation:
Malaysia meeting runs against Muslim community interests
2019/12/18 Arab News
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1600941/saudi-arabia 
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