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Friday, February 7, 2020

East Mediterranean is stormy (3)

*Full text can be read in OCIN Initiative;
http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/Jan2020EastMedEnglish.pdf

 (Arabic Version)

(Japanese Version)

February 2020





Harmonizing Russian and Turkish interests



For Russia, Export of natural gas is exclusively important source of state revenue. Following the Nordstream in Baltic Sea, Russia planned to build Southstream pipeline to avoid gas trade conflict with Ukraine. The pipeline lays under the Black sea for Europe via Bulgaria. Southstream was later changed its route from Bulgaria to Turkey. That is Turkstream. On January 8, 2020, the completion ceremony of Turkstream was held in Istanbul under the presence of both Russian and Turkish Presidents[1].



Just several days before the ceremony, Israel, Cyprus and Greece have launched the East Med Pipeline project to lay a submarine pipeline under the Eastern Mediterranean[2]. The project is planned to export natural gas to Western European countries. The East Med pipeline will be a strong competitor of Turkstream in the future. Turkey could not overlook the East Med pipeline. In addition to economic problem, Islamic Turkey has a religious conflict with Jewish Israel and Christian (Greek Orthodox) Greece. Turkey and Cyprus had a long dispute on territorial issues. Turkey cannot realize its long-standing dream of joining the EU due to the objection by Greece and Cyprus. Turkey, therefore, has signed an EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) agreement with Libya to block the East Med Pipeline[3].




Under the normal international maritime law, Turkey and Libya have no border of territorial waters nor EEZ. However, Turkey has justified the EEZ agreement between two countries insisting that Eurasian continental shelf of Turkey and African continental shelf of Libya are exposed each other. The purpose of Turkish-Libyan EEZ is to stop the pipeline from Israel to Europe. This is also the economic containment policy against Cyprus. (See figure)



Many subjects are overlapping on the gas pipeline projects



Turkstream and East Med Pipeline have many subjects behind the scene. The longstanding struggle between Turkey and Cyprus is a bilateral issue. There is diplomatic and military subject, too. Turkey has the forefront eastern base of NATO. Turkey is more important alliance than Cyprus for Western countries. Nevertheless, Turkey is not able to join the EU due to the objection by Greece and Cyprus. In humanitarian issues, Turkey blocked Syrian political refugees heading to Europe and Libya is the boarding point of economic refugees of the African continent. Cooperation with Turkey and Libya is indispensable for European countries to curb refugee inflows.



In addition to these bilateral or regional subjects, there is an economic subject between the United States and Russia over the natural gas market in Europe. Russia heavily relies on natural gas revenue. European market is indispensable for Russia. To achieve the goal, Russia is struggling to reinforce its pipeline network. United States had looked over Russian activity so far. But in these days US has changed its attitude. The United States regards Europe as an export market of its LNG.



Traditionally US basic strategy was suppress the former Soviet Union and Russia. Nowadays the United States is about to become a natural gas exporter as a result of massive shale gas production. The US has forced the Baltic Sea's second Nordstream pipeline to suspend construction and also levied economic sanctions on Turkstream contractors. The Trump administration is likely to intervene in realizing the East Med Pipeline of Israel, the United States' closest ally.



The US is the strongest country in the world. President Donald Trump advocates America-first policy. Germany as well as France and other major Western European nations and Russia cannot stand to the US. Moreover, Turkey, which is one of strong power in the Middle East, has no effective power against the US. The gas problem in the Eastern Mediterranean might be up to the US President.



However, in an optimistic view, President Trump is unlikely to intervene the said subject. The Eastern Mediterranean gas subject is too little for the President. He is a man who takes into account whether the subject has merit or demerit for him. His goal of the game is to win the presidential election, and to defeat China economically and Iran politically.



End





By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com




[1] Erdogan, Putin inaugurate pipeline, discuss Libya, Syria
2020/1/8 The Peninsula
https://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/08/01/2020/Erdogan,-Putin-inaugurate-pipeline,-discuss-Libya,-Syria
[2] Deal agreed for EastMed undersea gas pipeline to Europe
2020/1/2 Arab News
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1607616/business-economy
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