* Full text can be read as follows
Mar, 2021
3. King Salman and his sons cling to the
United States
Currently
Saudi Arabia has two implications; state and
ruler. State of Saudi Arabia is generally considered as the leader of the
Islamic Sunni sect against Iran, the leader of OPEC, which controls the world's
energy supply, and one of the political leader in Arab region. The ruler of Saudi
Arabia is the House of Saud. Its official name is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The
House of Saud has been allowed its sovereignty by distributing oil wealth to people
(so-called rentier state). Taking into consideration of current rulership, it
might be better to call Kingdom of Salman and his clan instead of Kingdom of
The House of Saud. Now King Salman and his sons make utmost effort for the
survival of Kingdom and themselves in both domestic and international arena.
Saudi Arabia itself is extremely vulnerable. Though
Saudi Arabia is the strongest economic power in the Middle East, it is far from
Iran, Turkey and Egypt in other fields. Saudi Arabia cannot compete with even
Israel which has less population. Saudi Arabia cannot match in the war with
Yemeni rebel where is the poorest country in the world. Only the close
relationship with the United States can overcome the weakness of Saudi Arabia.
The relationship between the United States and
Saudi Arabia during the Trump administration was extremely good. It was a clear
evidence that President Trump visited Saudi Arabia as the first foreign countries
after taking office. Then the President withdrew from Iran nuclear deal and
supported to form the coalition force led by Saudi Arabia for civil war in
Yemen. Trump administration also designated the Houthi rebels of Yemen as a
terrorist organization. US decisions delighted the King Salman.
In return Saudi Arabia ordered huge amounts of
US arms as a proof of gratitude when President Trump visited the Kingdom. And
Crown Prince MbS actively supported the Middle East peace plan by Jared Kushner,
President’s son-in-law. But this was the peak of MbS. Conceited MbS made an
irrecoverable mistake. It was the murder case of journalist Mr. Khashoggi at
the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey[1].
It is clear to everyone that MbS has ordered or agreed to kill Mr. Khashoggi. Even
CIA report of US shows that fact. But President Trump did not admit the facts
and did not release the CIA report during his tenure.
MbS seemed to come back on the stage. But Europe
and other countries except US President Trump suspected MbS. The IPO of
state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco in New York or London stock market has
been postponed indefinitely. MbS's hope to restore his fame hardly came back.
MbS aimed to be a pioneer of the peace maker between
Israel and the Arab countries. The peace agreement was the long-waiting legacy
of President Trump. MbS utilized his close relationship with Kushner. But King
Salman was more conservative and cautious than Crown Prince. A crack was born
between them and they couldn’t make final decision. The fruit of peace was overtaken
by the UAE[2].
When President Biden took office, the
situation has become more unfavorable for Saudi Arabia. President Biden who puts
priority on human and women’s rights has no mercy on Saudi Arabia, especially on
MbS.
President Biden has released the CIA report of
Khashoggi case and imposed economic sanctions on the participants who were
subordinates of MbS. The President called King Salman a month after his
inauguration, and Secretary of State called MbS respectively. This is a natural
protocol of diplomatic procedure. But MbS must have been dissatisfied because
he was accustomed to the good treatment by former President.
Saudi Arabia has complicated problems with US in
energy and peace. Ecology requested Saudi Arabia to switch from oil to
renewable energy. The United States has established a 100% self-sufficiency
system in oil. US is going to neglect Saudi Arabia in economic field. Peace between
Israel and the Arab nations has spread to Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco following
the UAE. US is no need to embrace Saudi Arabia for the time being. Furthermore,
the United States has removed the Yemeni Houthis from the list of terrorist
organizations and urged Saudi Arabia to make peace with them. The primary
concern of US foreign policy is now how to contain China, while withdrawing
from the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia is now being left behind on the
international arena. The partner that Saudi Arabia can rely on is the United
States only. King Salman and his sons make efforts desperately to curry favor
with President Biden. At the last OPEC+ meeting Saudi Arabia offered voluntarily
cut production by one million B/D while Russia and other countries tried to
ease production cuts. Saudi Arabia’s proposal implied to attract the favor of
United States as follows.
As the result of voluntarily production cut,
oil price became higher. But the benefits of the price increase are cancelled
for Saudi Arabia due to own production cut. While the US oil industry enjoys
double advantage of price up and increase of production. It can be said that
Saudi Arabia's voluntarily production cuts show self-sacrificing loyalty to the
United States.
Currently Saudi Arabia is making utmost effort
to get favor of the United States.
End
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com
[1] How Saudi Arabia can manage the murder case of Jamal Khashoggi?
http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/0464KhashoggiCaseApr2019English.pdf
[2] Israeli-UAE relations rapidly deepening with Abraham Accord
http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/202011AbrahamAccordEnglish.pdf
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