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(Japanese Version)
March 2020
Preface
There are two active princes in Saudi Arabia. They are Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Petroleum Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman. Their father is King Salman, but they are half-brother of different mothers. Muhammad bin Salman, so-called MbS, was born in 1985. He is younger than Abdul Aziz bin Salman who was born in 1960. MbS, King’s favorite son, is now the de facto ruler of the Kingdom.
(See genealogy of King Salman: http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/3-1-7.pdf)
Two princes are gambling on the future of the Kingdom. Prince Mohammed gambles on his regime by charging other royal families with treason. Oil Minister Abdul Aziz gambles on oil market without the cooperation of Russia. Despite the apparent deterioration in the world economy and a decline in oil consumption due to the new coronavirus infection, Prince Abdul Aziz ordered to increase oil production aiming to defeat the rivals. Now Saudi Arabia is going to play death match with shale gas and oil producing companies in US. Bets by two princes are extremely risky. If they lose the game, not only their positions will be jeopardized, but also the Saud family and Saudi Arabia itself will be in terrible situation.
Part 1. Crown Prince gambles on his regime
(See genealogy of King Abdul Aziz and his wives: http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/3-1-3.pdf )
Newspapers reports that the reason for the detention was treason and princes were now under house arrest. No follow-up report is available so far. However, nobody believes that Crown Prince Muhammad has nothing to do with the arrest. Crown Prince is now the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is not exaggeration that his power politics has brought troubles and terrors in the Kingdom.
Civil war in Yemen brought the trouble in soundness of Kingdom’s finance system. The mass arrest of royal members and powerful business person in charge with corruption in 2017 spoiled the credibility of MbS in domestic society. The murder of Mr. Khashoggi, reporter of Washington Post at the Saudi consulate of Istanbul in Turkey in 2018 worsened the honor of the Kingdom in the international society[1]. The reputation of the Crown Prince has fallen on the ground at home and abroad. Vision 2030, the flagship project of Crown Prince, is stagnant now[2]. The listing of Aramco in the overseas market is uncertain. Decline in oil prices might led to a financial crisis. Economic problems have piled up in the Kingdom. (The problem of oil prices will be mentioned in the next paragraph.)
This is not the first time that Crown Prince Mohammad arrests royal family members. In 2017, Prince Alwaleed, a famous billionaire and a cousin of MbS, and Prince Mitteb, a son of the former King Abdullah, were arrested in charge with corruption. It was reported that Prince Alwaleed paid $ 6 billion on bail. Prince Mitteb was fired from the Commander of National Guard. Most of the suspects including two princes were released before the trial. There was no doubt that the government dealt with suspects. The National Guard, which was the militia of the former King Abdullah, has been merged into the regular army. Crown Prince Mohammad is the Defense Minister. MbS monopolized military powers.
Prince Ahmed had been deputy interior minister until 2012 when his elder brother Naif was its minister. He never appeared on the surface of politics afterwards. But in 2018 when he stayed in London, he appeared on Western TV and criticized the involvement of Saudi Arabia in the Yemeni civil war. King Salman and Prince Muhammad got angry very much, and Prince Ahmed was about to be unable to return to the Kingdom for two and half months. Finally, he was allowed to return home with his apology. He kept low profile since then. Prince Muhammad bin Naif served as Crown Prince under King Salman from 2015 to 2017. But he was dismissed in June 2017 and replaced Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the son of King Salman.
There is one major difference between two royal arrests in 2017 and 2020. Princes detained in 2017 were the sons of prince Talal and The former king Abdullah. Salman, Talal and Abdullah had different mother, and they were half-brother each other. In other words, Crown Prince Muhammad and detained two cousins has different grandmother. In 2020 case, however, Crown Prince Muhammad and two cousins share the same grandmother, Hassa Sudeiri.
It looks like that MbS convict his relatives regardless of half- or full-blood if they threaten the status of himself or his father, King Salman. There is no sanctuary to eliminate political enemies in his politics. There will be no mercy for fear politics by MbS.
(To be Continued----)
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com
[1] How Saudi Arabia can manage the murder case of Jamal Khashoggi?
(APR. 2019)
http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/0464KhashoggiCaseApr2019English.pdf
http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/0464KhashoggiCaseApr2019English.pdf
[2] Red signal on the Saudi Vision 2030: Private sectors wary of the
Crown Prince
http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/0458Ocin201901MbsEnglish.pdf
http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/0458Ocin201901MbsEnglish.pdf
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