Dec, 2020
Preface: US and Western Europe bring political vacuum of the Middle East
The influence of the United
States and Western European countries on the Middle East is temporarily
weakened. The United States will change its government in coming January. Its diplomatic
policy for the Middle East has yet been decided. In European Union (EU), Brexit,
the UK withdrawal from EU, is just around the corner. The economic and social
turmoil caused by not only Brexit but also the coronavirus pandemic cannot foreseeable.
Neither the United States nor Western Europe can afford to be involved in the
Middle East issue.
In case of the United States,
it is inevitable that the Middle East policy of the president-elect Joe Biden
of Democratic Party will significantly different from that of the present Trump
administration of Republican Party. Trump administration withdrew from the Iran
nuclear deal framework and strengthened economic sanctions on Iran. Instead
Trump administration favored its stance toward Israel. They were the relocation
of the US embassy to Jerusalem, the consent to further settlement in the West
Bank and the annexation of the Golan Heights. President-elect Biden said that
he might rejoin to the Iran nuclear deal framework. He will also change the
Trump administration's policy on the Israeli issue.
During the Trump administration
Israel enjoyed its predominance, while Iran was exhausted in economy. Both countries
are now waiting breathlessly new Middle East policy of the Biden administration.
Other Middle Eastern countries having considerable interests in the Middle East
are also watching the US’s new foreign policy carefully. They are also
interested in what kind of Middle East diplomacy the Western Europe countries
will apply, too. However, so far, neither the United States nor Western
European countries are stalled. They cannot propose new and clear Middle East
policies. Middle East is in political vacuum. It can be said that the countries
having interested in Middle East wonder looking for the room to step in.
Russia is steadily expanding
its military presence from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean and then to the
Indian Ocean. Turkey, which had dreamed of joining the EU as a loyal member of
NATO, has been blocked from Christian nations such as Greece and Eastern
Europe. Turkey has awakened to Islam and now aims to become a Middle Eastern conqueror
like the ex-Ottoman Empire. Israel, a Jewish state surrounded by Islamic
states, regained diplomatic relations with the UAE and several Arab countries
with the strong support of US President Donald Trump. Israel succeeded to divide
the Arab nation. Israel's next target is Iran. Israel will do whatever it
takes. Iran is extremely exhausted by US sanctions, but has a strong
willingness to fight. Iran is eager to strengthen its military power watching
the foreign policy of US president-elect Biden. Military conflicts in the
Middle East looks like never end.
Looking sideways at such
military conflicts, China is enthusiastic about expanding its economic power
across the Eurasian continent. Its slogan is the "One Belt, One
Road". UAE and Qatar should not be forgotten in terms of economy and
finance. Though they are small countries of GCC, they have plenty of oil
(natural gas) money and afford to buy expensive weapons.
Each country is playing a power
game. However, there are two countries that are likely to be left behind in the
progress. They are Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Both countries are considered to be
major powers in the Middle East. But Egypt's leadership in the Arab world is
jeopardized by Israel's Arab split policy. Saudi Arabia is just wasting oil
wealth and new nation-building strategy is going to be fruitless.
Ahead of starting US new administration,
Brexit (BREXIT) and the possible end of the coronavirus pandemic in next year,
the current Middle East can be said to be a time of political and economic
blank. This paper is intended to give an overview of the countries that are sneaking
in the absence of Western Europe and the United States.
(cont’d)
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com
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