Blog: OCIN the Cloud: Countries sneaking in the political vacuum of the Middle East (3)

* You can read full text as follows.

http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/202012PoliticalVacuumInMeEnglish.pdf

Dec, 2020

2. Turkey: A dangerous tightrope diplomacy aiming the champion of the Middle East

Turkey would have been helped by the political vacuum of BREXIT and COVID19 in the Europe and the administrative change in the United States. During the Syrian Civil War, Turkey built a close military cooperation with Russia and introduced S-400 missile system. Turkey also tried to introduce the US stealth fighter F-35 as the forefront of NATO against Russia and Iran. Turkey intended to have both F-35 as a spear by the West and S-400 as a shield by the East at the same time. It is just a contradiction for the West[1].

EU could not control Turkey on the issue of natural gas development in the eastern Mediterranean, too. Turkey ignored the opposition of Greece and Cyprus and forced an exploration operation of natural gas. In addition, it has signed an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement with the central government of Libya to prevent Israel, Egypt and Lebanon from the pipeline project laying for Europe. In the Libyan civil war, Italy supports the government in Tripoli and France supports the rebels in Benghazi. EU is not in solid. Turkey makes light of EU[2].

Turkey cleverly roams between the west and the east like the bats in Aesop's story. However, the situation is constantly changing. In the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region in Azerbaijan, Turkey supported Azerbaijan and forced Armenian troop to withdraw. Western European countries have accused Turkey. They are pro-Armenia but anti-Islam[3]. On the other hand, Turkey has many domestic problems. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), President Erdogan’s party, weakened. The prime rate had to raise due to high inflation. The change of economic policy resulted in the resignation of finance minister who was the son-in-law of President Erdogan[4]. President was eager to gain popularity among Islamic conservatives by remodeling Sofia Palace in Istanbul into a mosque[5]. It is the crucial time for him to keep a strong power like before.

3. Israel: Arabs have been successfully divided. Get rid of another foe!

It is true that Israel was the biggest winner in the Middle East by keeping the close relation with President Trump for the past four years. In addition to the relocation of the US Embassy to Jerusalem and enhancement of the settlement in the West Bank of the Jordan River. Israel opened diplomatic relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco assisted by US mediation. Israel, which had been isolated in the Middle East, succeeded in dividing the Arab countries and annulled the peaceful coexistence policy of Israel and Palestine which had been prevailing within the international community.

After January next year, however, the head wind will blow against Israel when the United States will change from the Trump Republican administration to the Biden Democratic administration. Let’s imagine that the relations between United States and Israel had been the worst in history when Biden was the Vice President in the Obama administration. That is why Israel is still stick to pile up accomplished facts during the Trump administration even though it was a lame duck. The UAE and several Arab countries are the ally of Israel now. Iran is the only one enemy left against Israel.

Religious Iran calls Israel as an enemy of Muslims. This gives Israel the big opportunity to ask joint operation against Iran with secular monarchy countries in the Gulf region. Israel is inferior to Egypt, Iraq, and even Saudi Arabia in terms of population, and inferior to oil-producing countries like UAE in terms of economic power. Intelligence is essential for Israel to survive. Israel has the world's leading spy network Mossad.

Recently, a key person in Iran's nuclear program was assassinated in Tehran[6]. The method of assassination was extremely sophisticated. Nobody doubt that Israel was behind the scene. Immediately after opening diplomatic relations with the UAE, high-ranking Israeli officials landed on Dubai Airport one after another including the top of Israeli intelligence, Mossad. Dubai, the open-minded international city, is a heavn for active spies. In the past, a Hamas executive was assassinated in Dubai[7]. This time Israeli intelligence officer(s) might enter to Dubai without any inquiries and he (or they) instructed the suspects in Tehran from there. Israel is confident that foes should be get rid of before President Trump lefts oval office in Washington.

(cont’d)

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: Arehakazuya1@gmail.com

[1] Blow to Erdogan as US boots Turkey out of F-35 strike fighter program

2020/7/19 Arab News

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1706781/middle-east

[2] The East Mediterranean is stormy

http://ocininitiative.maeda1.jp/Jan2020EastMedEnglish.pdf

[3] Turkey, Russia seal deal for Karabakh ‘peacekeeping center’

2020/12/1 Arab News

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1770956/middle-east

[4] Erdogan’s son-in-law resigns as finance minister